The second half of the year poses many of the same challenges to start 2023. Inflation remains sticky, and the Fed is still in a rate-hiking cycle. While there are expectations for a recession, the risks and subsequent rate-cutting cycle are being pushed into 2024. The Fed has continued to communicate it expects to hike rates at least 25 more basis points and maintain a higher terminal level for longer.
Our neutral equity relative to fixed income view remains with slowing US and global growth expectations. The outlook for duration has improved as we have increased our exposure and shifted our preference to investment-grade credit over high yield.
By Rob Gee, CFA
Senior Investment Analyst
EQIS Capital Management, Inc.